Anti-GMA feelings ran very high in the last few days of the recent hearings of the House Committee on Justice, with the nationwide 3rd Quarter 2005 Social Weather Survey finding 79% wanting President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo impeached, 64% favoring her resignation, and 51% saying she should be removed by People Power if the House of Representatives would reject her impeachment.

The Garci factor

The key factor in the negative sentiment is the belief of most Filipinos that GMA's admitted phone calls to "a Comelec official" amounted to instructing him to cheat in the 2004 election, and were not merely meant to protect her votes as she claimed in her June 27 apology.

Among the majority 57% believing that GMA's phone calls gave instructions to cheat, 89% were pro-impeachment, 80% were pro-resignation, and 62% were pro-People-Power.

Among the minority 36% accepting that she called the Comelec official only to protect her votes, a large 68% were nevertheless pro-impeachment, but only 44% were pro-resignation, and only 35% were pro-People-Power.

Mixed opinions about the House and the Senate

The SWS survey found mixed opinions about whether the House of Representatives could decide fairly on the impeachment of President Arroyo and whether the Senate, in case GMA would be impeached, could decide fairly on whether or not to remove her from office.

Only 22% said they had much trust in the House, whereas 29% said they had little trust in it, and 48% felt unsure either way. Only 24% said they had much trust in the Senate, whereas 25% said they had little trust in it, and 50% felt unsure either way.

Similarity to the prelude to Erap's impeachment

These findings are reminiscent of public opinion in 2000, just before the impeachment of President Joseph 'Erap' Estrada. In October 2000, an SWS survey commissioned by the Manila Standard found public belief or disbelief in the charges of Gov. Luis 'Chavit' Singson against Erap as the key factor in framing opinions as to whether the latter should resign.

The said October 2000 SWS survey found 26% with much trust in the House, 19% with little trust in it, and 54% unsure of it, on the matter of making a fair decision on whether to impeach Erap; it found 26% with much trust in the Senate, 17% with little trust in it, and 57% unsure of it, on the matter of reaching a fair verdict in case Erap would be impeached.

Pro-Impeachment Dominant Everywhere

In the new Social Weather Survey, large majorities in all study areas called for GMA's impeachment: 90% in Metro Manila, 82% in Mindanao, 79% in the Balance of Luzon, and 69% in the Visayas.

The higher the socio-economic class, and the higher the schooling, the greater the support for either impeachment or resignation of President Arroyo.

Visayans Divided On Resignation

Pro-resignation sentiment had majorities in Mindanao (72%), Metro Manila (70%), and the Balance of Luzon (65%). Visayans, however, were split into 49% favoring and 50% opposing GMA's resignation.

People Power

The call for People Power to remove GMA in case of non-impeachment was a dominant 51% in favor, versus 26% against, and 23% undecided.

The percentage scores for and against such People Power were 62-25 in Metro Manila, 51-28 in the Balance of Luzon, 40-31 in the Visayas, and 53-21 in Mindanao, with the remainders from 100 percent being the undecided in each area.

The very poor E classes were highly in favor of People Power, by a score of 54-18, followed by the D class or masa, with a score of 51-26.

The middle-to-upper or ABC classes, on the other hand, were split 43-42 on the use of People Power.

Net Satisfaction of PGMA at -23

The August 2005 Social Weather Survey found 30% satisfied and 53% dissatisfied with the performance of GMA, giving her a very low Net Satisfaction Rating of -23.

This was not as bad, however, as in May 2005 when there were 26% satisfied and 59% dissatisfied or a Net Satisfaction Rating of -33, the record low for all Presidents beginning with Corazon Aquino.

The President's net satisfaction rating in the Visayas, where she customarily draws her strongest support, climbed back to merely zero, from -15 in May.

In other areas her net rating was negative, at -44 in NCR, -26 in Mindanao, and -25 in the Balance of Luzon.

GMA's rating rose by 3 points in NCR and by 22 points in the Balance of Luzon, but fell by 14 points in Mindanao.

According to socioeconomic class, her net satisfaction rating was -13 among the middle-to-upper ABCs, -23 among the masa or Ds, and -31 among the very poor Es.

Survey Background

The Social Weather Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2005 and the Manila Standard-commissioned SWS survey of October 26-30, 2000 both used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of �3% for national percentages and �6% for area percentages).

In the new Social Weather Survey, all interviews outside Metro Manila were completed during August 26-31. In Metro Manila, 259 interviews were done over August 26-31; the balance of 41 interviews were completed over September 1-5. Thus, although the inclusive field period for the national sample was August 26 to September 5, 97% of the interviews had been done by the evening of August 31 when the House Committee on Justice voted to reject all the impeachment complaints.

Analysis of the component of the Metro Manila sample consisting of interviews with individuals having landline telephones in their homes shows consistency with the findings of the three telephone surveys done by SWS in Metro Manila from late June to early August 2005.

The items described in this release were not commissioned, but were included on SWS's own initiative.

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